The much discussed issue of global climate change received a shot in the arm by receiving the Nobel Peace Prize of 2007. The Norwegian Nobel Committee announced in Oslo on Friday the award of this year’s Peace Prize to the IPCC and Gore, an eminent environmentalist who was vice president of USA for two consecutive terms (1993-2001).

Perhaps these scientists involved in the research of global climate change are devoted for the peace of the humanity, it is yet unclear how much of that research actually could help the humanity to adapt to the change in the climate as the cause of future course of climate change remain uncertain.

Burning fossil fuels like coal, gas and oil, deforestation, and livestock raising cause the emission of gases like carbon dioxide and some others that trap the sun’s heat in the atmosphere adding to the natural greenhouse effect. This process of global warming has triggered climate change as suggested by the IPCC. The IPCC has issued four assessment reports over the past two decades. Each is an extensive compendium of the available scientific literature on the science and effects of climate change, the result of work by thousands of authors and reviewers. The fourth assessment report will be presented in full at the IPCC meeting to be held in Valencia, Spain, from Nov. 12 to 17.

According to some of the reports, during the 20th century, the global surface air temperature increased by an average of 0.74 degrees Celsius. IPCC model scenarios for 21st century suggest an average increase in temperature of 1.8 degrees. However , it should be noted that the models runs for IPCC report are far from realistic and there is a huge variations among those models in their sensitivity to changes in green house gases. Most of those models even can not produce all the features of our present ocean and atmosphere realistically.

It is not the first time that earth is observing a rise in temperature. Information derived from the ice cores of polar regions and tree rings around the globe suggest that the earth's temperature fluctuate a lot. Some 60 million years ago, at the time of the demise of the dinosaurs, temperatures in high latitudes were so high, in the neighborhood of 15C, that the poles were free of ice. Since that time the Earth has experienced the gradual global cooling. There are other natural causes. For example, the changes in earth-sun distance and/or the earth's tilt could give rise to changes in solar radiations coming to earth that in turn will take earth to warm phase or ice ages.

There is no doubt that the global temperature has increased over the years. But how much of that is human made remain uncertain. The temperature of earth naturally varies on several timescales ranging from decades to thousands of years. It appears that we are in a natural warming phase that coincides the rapid development of our civilization.

There is no dispute that CO2 levels are at dangerous levels and rising due to emissions - but it is yet unclear whether it is the primary cause of climate change. The earth's ocean and atmosphere have inherent modes of variabilities, which could cause temperature variations. For example, it is now understood that El Nino in the Pacific could cause world-wide changes in our weather and climate. In our ocean-atmosphere system there exist several other climate modes of variabilities such as the Indian Ocean Dipole and the Atlantic Meridional Mode. We are not certain at this time how those natural ocean-atmosphere modes could interfere with each other to affect the temperature variation, and predictability of our weather and climate. The predictability of those climate modes and their impacts are not very accurate at this point. Note that all those climate modes are not necessarily well-represented in the model simulations used by the IPCC. So, if models are not accurate to simulate present climate modes how could we believe their future projections.

Although the role of human influence on the longer-term climate variations is uncertain, there is no doubt that the present growth in population and demand on resources forces us to take the path of sustainable developments. Forests should be restored and the heat island effects should be reduced by better architecture and by increasing green trees in and around big cities. Local governments should work harder to bring down the level of pollutions.

When we over emphasize on a particular aspect of our climate, for example the global warming debate, it is possible that we under emphasize or under value the most imminent causes of our suffering associated with climate variability and extreme weather events. I hope this most important aspect in climate research should not be neglected any further. Otherwise, the model scenarios will remain scenarios of text books.